Episode #30 Deep Dive – Shutdown Politics, Soaring Premiums, and the Fight for Pennsylvania’s Future
A deep dive into this week's episode of Paging America
Government Shutdown/ACA Premium Spikes
Another poll is out from Navigator that shows that Americans blame Trump and the Republicans for the government shutdown by a stable 10-point margin. A Navigator separate poll out Oct. 30th shows that a majority of Americans agree with Democrats’ messaging on why the shutdown is continuing and why they won’t go along with Republicans’ to re-open it without action on health care. There were two statements they asked about:
Democrats who say Trump and Republicans are spending billions on foreign aid and conflicts, including a $40 billion bailout of Argentina and billions more in overseas military spending. Meanwhile, Trump and Republicans are doing nothing for us at home – keeping the government shut down and pushing to strip health care from millions of Americans and raise healthcare costs for millions more.
And:
Democrats who say Trump and Republicans’ budget would more than double health care costs for 22 million Americans. Democrats say health care costs have already been skyrocketing, and so they are doing everything they can to stop health care costs from rising even more, at a time when tariffs are already driving up costs.
With the Healthcare.gov open enrollment beginning this Saturday, Nov. 1st, The Washington Post reports that ACA Marketplace premiums will spike on average by 30 percent next year, and that’s before consideration of the enhanced subsidies that expire at the end of this year:
Premiums for the most popular types of plans sold on the federal health insurance marketplace Healthcare.gov will spike on average by 30 percent next year, according to final rates approved by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and shown in documents reviewed by The Washington Post.
The higher prices — affecting up to 17 million Americans who buy coverage on the federal marketplace — reflect the largest annual premium increases by far in recent years. The higher premiums, along with the likely expiration of pandemic-era subsidies, mean millions of people will see their health insurance payments double or even triple in 2026.
It’s worth noting that this is not a “poor people” problem. It will hit those with moderate incomes the hardest. From BenefitsPRO:
Those with slightly higher incomes pay for part of their premiums already, but the amount would increase dramatically if the enhanced credits expire. For people who earn 250% of the federal poverty level ($53,000 for a couple in 2025), costs would go from about 4% to 8% of their income.
Increases would be most extreme for the more than one million Marketplace customers earning more than 400% of the poverty level (about $84,000 for a family of two). About a million people would go from paying 8% of their income for health insurance premiums to becoming responsible for the entire cost themselves.
This will be especially painful for them because of the predicted spike in Marketplace health insurance premiums next year.
Vulnerable Republicans are so worried about the political impact of all of this that, last week, a group of front-line House Republicans sent a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), calling on him to “immediately” address the expiring enhanced ObamaCare tax credits once the government shutdown ends. By then, of course, it may very well be too late.
“Our Conference and President Trump have been clear that we will not take healthcare away from families who depend on it. This is our opportunity to demonstrate that commitment through action,” they wrote.
RFK Jr.’s war with the medical societies
POLITICO reports that RFK Jr.’s war on medical societies like the AMA and the AAP is driving them to become more partisan and aligned with Democrats:
Doctors and their professional associations, such as the American Medical Association and American Academy of Pediatrics, have clashed with the GOP over health policy changes, but Kennedy has given them a leftward shove by deriding them as pharma flunkeys and progressive ideologues. [...]
Republicans in Congress are piling on, potentially risking the medical profession’s evolution into a Democratic-leaning interest group. In turn, that would winnow doctors’ influence on policy issues when Republicans are in power, and prompt big shifts in public health guidance when Democrats are. [...]
Kennedy’s broadsides…have forced the leaders of physician societies to negotiate between an unfriendly government and many of their own members, who have demanded greater resistance to Kennedy’s plans to overhaul the public health system.
Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas said the medical associations are “run by liberals…people that failed being real doctors.”
The attacks on the AAP, in particular, got some help from the conservative front group America’s Frontline Doctors (AFLDS) that sent out an email recently tying Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) to vaccines and asking recipients to sign a petition to “defund the AAP” over its positions on childhood vaccines. The campaign is not mentioned on the AFLDS website and is likely a way to spur sales of the group’s leader Simone Gold’s new children’s book, “The Plot Against the Kids: A True COVID Story”, while sowing distrust of the AAP.
Elections Tuesday
This coming Tuesday, Nov. 4th is election day in many states. There’s a lot at stake in some of them. For example, in Virginia, where early voting is outpacing the 2021 governor’s race, there’s a governor’s race between Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. Incumbent Republican Glenn Youngkin is term-limited and not on the ballot. Polls show the two in a very tight race with Spanberger ahead of Earle-Sears by seven points with 6% undecided.
This race is drawing national attention as a key political test for both parties ahead of next year’s midterms. Virginia went for Pres. Joe Biden by a ten-point margin in 2020 but Kamala Harris won the state by under six points in 2024 so Democrats are looking to reverse the trend (or, as a Washington Post op-ed said, “In desperate need of hope, Democrats look towards Virginia.”)
Control of the Virginia House of Delegates where Republicans have a narrow majority is also at stake. Several suburban districts that flipped in recent years are once again expected to decide which party controls the chamber heading into 2026, reports FOX 5.
Links for a deeper dive on Episode #30
The Washington Post: Average Obamacare premiums are set to rise 30 percent, documents show
BenefitsPRO: Middle-class families face soaring health costs if ACA subsidies aren’t extended
The Hill: Vulnerable House Republicans urge Johnson to address ObamaCare subsidies
Letter to Speaker Johnson on Government Shutdown and Healthcare Priorities
NPR: SNAP runs out of money Nov. 1. Here’s what that means in your state
CNN Politics: Judge indicates she’ll intervene in fight over SNAP food assistance money
Virginia Mercury: Poll: In top Va. races, Spanberger sustains lead over Earle-Sears, Miyares edges Jones by 1 point
The Washington Post: In desperate need of hope, Democrats look towards Virginia
FOX 5 Washington DC: Virginia 2025 Elections: Final week of early voting
POLITICO: In his battle with doctors, RFK Jr.’s got GOP lawmakers on his side
US Pharmacist: Sudden Infant Death Syndrome
AXIOS: The stakes are high in the Pennsylvania Supreme Court elections
Spotlight PA: Pa. election 2025: What is judicial retention, and why does it matter for Supreme Court balance?
NBC News: These Pennsylvania court races are usually sleepy. This year, they’re drawing millions in spending.
The Philadelphia Inquirer: More than $7 million has poured into the Pa. Supreme Court judicial retention election so far
You can find Dr. Tayler on Instagram, TikTok, and BlueSky. His podcast website is thezekelypodcast.com.